[Q821.Ebook] Free Ebook The Oxford Dictionary of Philosophy (Oxford Quick Reference), by Simon Blackburn

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The Gambler's Fallacy, the Dirty Hands Argument, Pascal's Wager--philosophical terms can be both intriguing and baffling. Now, eminent philosopher Simon Blackburn offers the most authoritative and up-to-date dictionary of philosophy available in a single volume. Ranging from Aristotle to Zen, the two thousand plus entries cover the entire span of philosophy, from the Vedas (written over three thousand years ago) to the most recent technical terminology, with ample coverage of important themes from Chinese, Indian, Islamic, and Jewish philosophy. Here are all the terms one would expect to find in a comprehensive dictionary of philosophy--idealism and empiricism, ethics and aesthetics, Epicureanism and Stoicism, existentialism and logical positivism, and much more. Blackburn also defines many concepts not normally found in such reference works, including entries for apathy, laughter, and the meaning of life, and he includes relevant terms from disciplines such as mathematics, physics, biology, artificial intelligence, and linguistics. In addition, there are capsule biographies of nearly five hundred individuals, from the pre-Socratics to such contemporary figures as Jacques Derrida, Michel Foucault, Richard Rorty, and Simone de Beauvoir.

• Sales Rank: #647676 in Books
• Published on: 2008-10-02
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 5.10" h x .90" w x 7.60" l, .86 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 407 pages

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• ISBN13: 9780199541430
• Condition: New
• Notes: BRAND NEW FROM PUBLISHER! 100% Satisfaction Guarantee. Tracking provided on most orders. Buy with Confidence! Millions of books sold!

From School Library Journal
Grade 9 Up–Thanks to clever typography, this revision of the 1994 edition eliminates virtually nothing, adding hundreds of new entries in the same 400 pages with no loss of legibility. Most additions are biographical; under A and B alone, for instance, there are more than 40 such, including Mary Astell, Ghose Aurobindo, Charles Babbage, Abraham Bar Hayya, and Jorge Luis Borg�s. More Chinese (ch'eng, yi, zhi, feng shui) and Sanscrit (samadhi, ahamkara) join Latin and German terms, and occasionally a new word (education, wisdom, toxin puzzle, ecofeminism) appears. The time line is also new. This edition will double as a world-religions reference, but its original material is, reassuringly, little changed.–Patricia D. Lothrop, St. George's School, Newport, RI
Copyright � Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

From Library Journal
Almost 3000 entries-many extensively cross-referenced-cover Eastern and Western philosophy (with emphasis on the latter), all the main subdivisions of philosophy, terminology from other disciplines that is significant in philosophical discussion, and major historical figures. Occasionally, information in a definition coupled with its cross references make the term's meaning unnecessarily murky (e.g., compare the "validity"-"follow"-"entailment" sequence to the definition of "validity" in a standard elementary logic text). Some definitions are idiosyncratic (e.g., that of "straw man"), and some omit something necessary for correctness (e.g., the common knowledge condition in defining D. Lewis's "convention"). On the whole, however, the definitions are clear, correct, and useful, and the subjects of biographical entries are generally chosen sensibly. Blackburn covers more than A.R. Lacey in A Dictionary of Philosophy (Routledge, 1990) and a bit more than Antony Flew in A Dictionary of Philosophy (St. Martin's, 1984. 2d ed.), though Flew is somewhat clearer. Since these three dictionaries have different emphases, they complement one another nicely. Recommended for academic libraries.
Robert Hoffman, York Coll., CUNY
Copyright 1994 Reed Business Information, Inc.

From Booklist
In his preface to the first edition, reprinted here, the author states that his "own interests and assessments are not always disguised." This is true of the second edition as well, providing such delicious morsels as, in the entry on Jacques Derrida, "Derrida's work . . . is not easily assimilated by people used to normal expressions of thought." Nevertheless, the vast majority of entries are admirably objective. Blackburn's preference is for--and expertise lies in--the branch of the Western philosophical tradition culminating in academic Anglo-American philosophy.

Although the book jacket claims this to be a "vastly expanded second edition, with over 500 new entries," there is no indication in the new preface or elsewhere what these new entries are. The page count has not altered significantly from the first edition. More than 500 of the new edition's more than 3,000 entries are biographical, including non-Western thinkers such as Confucius and Kitaro Nishida and nonphilosophers such as Dante and Freud. Among the terms covered are Apathy, Capitalism, Environmental ethics, Hedonism, Hatha-yoga, Taoism, Ontology, Self-deception, Turing machine, Vedanta, Whig view of history, and Welfare. Entries range in length from a sentence (e.g., Formal implication, Free variable) to nearly two pages (e.g., Kant, Immanuel). There is extensive cross-referencing within and between the lucid entries. Concluding the volume are an appendix of logical symbols and a chronology of important philosophical and other cultural dates.

The second edition's jacket quotes the Times Literary Supplement on the first edition: "the most comprehensive dictionary of philosophy in English." This is no longer true and was perhaps untrue even in 1996. In the last 10 years, a variety of excellent -single-author and multiple-author one-volume philosophical dictionaries, encyclopedias, and "companions" have become available (not to mention far more extensive print and Internet references). Each offers entries and viewpoints not found in any of the others so it makes good sense to have more than one. The Oxford Dictionary of Philosophy is an excellent choice for public and academic libraries. Craig Bunch
Copyright � American Library Association. All rights reserved

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75 of 77 people found the following review helpful.
Near Perfect Entry Level Dictionary of Philosophy
By Bradley P. Rich
Philosophy is, at best, a difficult business. Whether one is a professional philosopher (whatever that means), or a casual reader, any discussion of philosophy requires familiarity with a huge number of specialized terms. A philosophical dictionary allows the reader to quickly ground himself in the vocabulary without losing the train of thought.
The various encyclopedias of philosophy are more comprehensive, but they serve a completely different purpose. If you are looking for in depth analysis, turn to an encyclopedia, but for a quick definition, this volume is perfect. The entries contain just the perfect amount of information. You are quickly gotten up to speed, without bogging down in endless peripheral issues.
In short, a valuable supplement to philosophical studies, both for the novice and for the more experienced reader of philosophical texts.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By Amazon Customer
Used this for an intro to philosophy class and it was incredibly helpful.

51 of 58 people found the following review helpful.
Witty? Yes. But vague and insufficient as well.
By Justin S. Whitaker
I own and have been extremely happy with Oxfords "Dictionary of World Religions" (J. Bower ed.) and was hoping for something similar with Blackburn's dictionary. However, I'm sadly disappointed. Rather than the concise, informative, flowing style of Bowker's work, I find broad generalizations, questions rather than statements and several entries ended in "this is much debated."
Of course, to those completely new to Philosophy this may be far more useful than direct, clear definitions of terms, but to any student of philosophy, this text will soon prove more frustrating than useful.
I would suggest the Cambridge Dictionary of Philosophy, (R. Audi ed.) for a much broader, clearer, (albeit less charming) Dictionary.

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[P746.Ebook] Ebook Copernicus' Secret: How the Scientific Revolution Began

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Reducing and controlling the level of vibration in a mechanical system leads to an improved work environment and product quality, reduced noise, more economical operation, and longer equipment life. Adequate design is essential for reducing vibrations, while damping and control methods help further reduce and manipulate vibrations when design strategies reach their limits. There are also useful types of vibration, which may require enhancement or control. Vibration Damping, Control, and Design balances theoretical and application-oriented coverage to enable optimal vibration and noise suppression and control in nearly any system.

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• Sales Rank: #3720095 in Books
• Published on: 2007-04-05
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 1.50" h x 7.13" w x 10.02" l, 2.72 pounds
• Binding: Hardcover
• 634 pages

About the Author
University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

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[J183.Ebook] Ebook Data Analysis: An Introduction (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences), by Michael S. Lewis-Beck

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This accessible introduction to data analysis focuses on the interpretation of statistical results, in particular those which come from nonexperimental social research. It will provide social science researchers with the tools necessary to select and evaluate statistical tests appropriate for their research question.

Using a consistent data-set throughout the book to illustrate the various analytic techniques, Michael Lewis-Beck covers topics such as univariate statistics, measures of association, the statistical significance of the relationship between two variables, simple regression in which the dependent variable is influenced by a single independent variable, and multiple regression.

• Sales Rank: #148370 in Books
• Brand: Brand: SAGE Publications, Inc
• Published on: 1995-01-17
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 8.50" h x .18" w x 5.50" l, .22 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 88 pages

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About the Author

Michael S. Lewis-Beck is F. Wendell Miller Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the University of Iowa, and holds a Ph.D. from the University of Michigan.  His interests are comparative elections, election forecasting, political economy, and quantitative methodology.  He has been designated the 4th most cited political scientist since 1940, in the field of methodology. Professor Lewis-Beck has authored or co-authored over 240 articles and books, including Applied Regression: An Introduction, Data Analysis: An Introduction, Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies, Forecasting Elections, The American Voter Revisited and French Presidential Elections.  He has served as an Editor of the American Journal of Political Science, the Sage QASS series (the green monographs) in quantitative methods and The Sage Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods.  Currently he is Associate Editor of International Journal of Forecasting and Associate Editor of French Politics.  In spring 2012, he held the position of Paul Lazersfeld University Professor at the University of Vienna. During the fall of 2012, he was Visiting Professor at Center for Citizenship and Democracy, University of Leuven (KU Leuven), Belgium.  In spring 2013, Professor Lewis-Beck was Visiting Scholar, Centennial Center, American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C.  During fall 2013, he served as Visiting Professor, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Spain. In spring, 2014, he was Visiting Scholar, Department of Political Science, University of Göteborg, Sweden.  For fall, 2014, he served as a Visiting Professor at LUISS University, Rome.  At present, he is co-authoring a book on how Latin Americans vote.

 

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5 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
A Textbook that's Not a Rip-off
By not a natural
In 1980, Michael Lewis-Beck published Applied Regression: An Introduction, a remarkably succinct, informative, and above all accessible introduction to regression analysis. I used it selectively as ancillary reading in courses I taught in basic statistics, quantitative research methods, and multiple regression. Students loved it. Finally, a statistics text they could use to help them with material they didn't understand in class or that was not clearly explained in their other readings!

Unbeknownst to me, the same author later published another Sage paperback titled Data Analysis: An Introduction. I became aware of this 1995 text only recently, and, after reading it, I realized that the last fifteen of the twenty-three years I taught basic statisitcs before retiring in 2010 would have been much easier for me and much more useful for beginning students if I had learned of the book when it first appeared.

As with Lewis-Beck's Applied Regression text, Data Analysis is a tribute to the author's ability to write both succinctly and accessibly about counter-intuitive material that students commonly dread. No reason for dread here, however, because once again Lewis-Beck has written a text that is really useful for beginners who want to use it as supplementary reading for a course or -- wonder of wonders! -- a self-teaching tool. I had long been convinced that the latter objective, producing a reasonably thorough introduction to basic statistics that would serve the interests of those who wanted to teach themselves but who lacked a good deal of mathematical aptitude, was something that would never be written. Lewis-Beck, however, proved me wrong, and he did it in less than eighty pages.

If his text has limitations they are manifest in its peculiarly sociologically orientation, meaning that an obligatory introduction to elementary probability theory is not included, and one-way analysis of variance, a tool that is used and misused much too often in some behavioral science disciplines, is not introduced.

However, there is much more thorough coverage of regression analysis than is included in all but a few introductory texts. Also, simpler techniques, such as the ubiquitous t test and non-parametric measures of association, including those based on Chi-square, are given their due. Lewis-Beck, however, realizes statistics starts to get interesting when analysts begin applying multiple regression. By the time the reader has worked through the first forty pages of Data Analysis, he or she is ready to make a first foray into material that most instructors save for a second course. If Lewis-Beck's earlier book, Applied Regression, were read as a sequel to Data Analysis, a student could honestly and confidently claim to be pretty well on the way to being a reasonably capable social science statistician.

Textbook publishing is a notorious racket. But Lewis-Beck's inexpensive and masterfully written Data Analysis: An Introduction provides a welcome reprieve from the usual rip-off routine.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Useful Tool For Your Research Toolbox
By Shannon Evans
A great tool is one you use often. An invaluable tool is one you use often and never lend to anyone else and you would slap their hand if they even thought about reaching for it. Anyone even thinks about attempting to borrow my copy of this resource and they will draw back a nub! This booklet has proved to be my "go to" handy reference guide for my own research. If you don't have this one on your personal reference shelf you are missing out.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Data Analysis; An Introduction
By A. Eller
An excellent primer for basic data analysis. It starts at the beginning of data gathering and discusses basic application of analysis; to include univariate statistics, measures of association, significance testing, simple and multiple regression.

I need a reference source to brush the dust off of my college statistics for a project, this book fit the bill for what I required and would recommend it for others. It is not a complex text, rather a booklet which helped me recall the basics of data analysis.

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Treasure Island: Dual Language Reader (English/Spanish), by Robert Louis Stevenson

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As opposed to memorizing Spanish phrases or forcing yourself to get through another dry Spanish grammar or verb manual, this Dual Language Reader ("DLR") will keep you excited to get to the next page! This compilation (500+ pages) features Robert Louis Stevenson's classic masterpiece: "Treasure Island" coupled with the superb Spanish translation by Manuel Caballero. Experience the swashbuckling story of cut-throat buccaneers, treasure maps, and pirate ships with Jim Hawkins, Long John Silver, Captain Smollett and a gang of pirates onboard 'The Hispaniola' as they set sail for Treasure Island! Formatted in Spanish & English! Stories compiled into our DLR format serve as an excellent tool to aid you in developing the ability to "think" in Spanish. With the English text coupled with the corresponding Spanish translation, you're able to comprehend, precisely, the ideas being conveyed. The key to mastering any foreign language is to develop the ability to "think" in the new language. A Dual Language Reader is an excellent tool for helping you to do exactly that!

• Sales Rank: #2317307 in Books
• Published on: 2011-03-05
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.21" h x 1.02" w x 6.14" l, 1.55 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 506 pages

About the Author
Robert Louis Stevenson was born in Edinburgh in 1850 and died in 1894. He studied at Edinburgh University and then went on to become a novelist, poet and travel writer. RLS wrote prolifically and among his most well known works are The Strange Case of Doctor Jekyll and Mr Hyde and Treasure Island. Darren Shan is the pen name of Darren O' Shaughnessey, as well as the main character of his bestselling series The Saga of Darren Shan. This series is also known as the Cirque du Freak series. Darren is currently writing his next series of books called the Demonata series.

Most helpful customer reviews

2 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Treasure Island Still a Mystery
By mystic traveler
I was extremely disappointed with this. First of all the paragraphs were all wrong---very often some of the translation was on a following page---not at all synchronized.
Also most of the translation was only an approximation. And some of was just plain wrong. Worst, however was the fact that there were unequal numbers of paragraphs in Spanish and English, which made it very difficult to find the translation.
Written by somebody fluent in English and Spanish with little
understanding of the needs of somebody trying to read this.
Back to the drawing board

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By Yuri Gubin
Awesome! -)

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[F869.Ebook] Get Free Ebook Substance Abuse Counseling (SW 393R 23-Treatment of Chemical Dependency), by Judith A. Lewis, Robert Q. Dana, Gregory A. Blevins

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Intended for undergraduate and graduate courses that cover chemical dependency. These courses can be found in psychology, counseling, human services, and social work departments. Course names may include "Introduction to Substance Abuse," "Addiction and Substance Abuse," and "Issues in Addiction and Recovery."

• Sales Rank: #511658 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Cengage Learning
• Published on: 2010-01-01
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: .60" h x 6.40" w x 9.30" l, 1.20 pounds
• Binding: Hardcover
• 304 pages

Features

• Used Book in Good Condition

Review
"The inclusion of multicultural issues throughout the book is great. Too many texts ignore these populations and fail to realize how one's ethnicity and culture impacts their diagnosis, clinical presentation and treatment. I like how multiculturalism is infused into many of the chapters and not just given lip service."

"My students have found the previous editions well written, readable, clear and without unnecessary verbiage. This edition is equally as well written or better."

About the Author
Judith A. Lewis (Ph.D., University of Michigan) retired in 2008 from Governors State University, where she served as Professor and Chair of Addictions Studies and Behavioral Health. A licensed psychologist in Illinois, she is a past president of the American Counseling Association (ACA) and the International Association of Marriage and Family Counselors. She is co-author of MANAGEMENT OF HUMAN SERVICE PROGRAMS, Fifth Edition; COMMUNITY COUNSELING: EMPOWERMENT STRATEGIES FOR A DIVERSE SOCIETY, Third Edition; and SUBSTANCE ABUSE COUNSELING, Fifth Edition (all Brooks/Cole Cengage Learning).

Robert Q. Dana (Ph.D., Vanderbilt University) is Vice President for Student Affairs and Dean of Students at the University of Maine. He has direct responsibility for all campus life programs including Greek Life, Alcohol and Drug Education Programs, Residence Life, Counseling Services, and campus-wide crisis management services. Dr. Dana spent a substantial part of his career as an addictive behaviors researcher and practitioner. He writes frequently on substance abuse and has conducted numerous studies on epidemiology and etiology of alcohol and other drug abuse. Dana has served as an extramural reviewer for state and federal agencies and as a journal reviewer for Addictive Behaviors. He teaches courses on addictions and is a member of the graduate faculty at University of Maine.

Gregory A. Blevins (Ph.D., Western Michigan University) is a retired Professor Emeritus from the College of Health and Human Services at Governors State University. He held positions as the assistant dean of the college, chair of the Addictions Studies and Behavioral Health Department, and full professor of Addictions Studies. He completed the Specialty Certificate in Alcohol and Drug Abuse in 1974 and his doctorate in Sociology in 1979. Dr. Blevins is a founder and life member of the International Coalition for Substance Abuse Educators and has served as a trainer for the Bemidji Area Office of Indian Health Services since 1988.

Most helpful customer reviews

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
PLEASE ENABLE THE TEXT TO SPEECH FEATURE!!!
By TTomlinson
Please enable the text to speech feature! I commute 8 hours per week for my Masters program and I listen to my books on my Kindle device. ALSO there are individuals who cannot see or have learning disabilities that would greatly benefit from this feature. In addition, college students can catch up on chapters while they are exercising, driving, etc. Please consider this! Thank you

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Near perfect textbook
By anonymous
I'm just about finished with an MA in psychology. This text is small and succinct yet comprehensive enough. After purchasing massive tomes for other classes only to use a small portion, I appreciate it when text can cover the material without overkill.
This text is a keeper. The coverage of the various substanes is very brief so a good supplemental text is Buzzed : The Straight Facts About the Most Used and Abused Drugs from Alcohol to Ecstasy - 3rd edition.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Great book
By carol
Excellent shape was brand new and am keeping the book as a reference. This was a great class and the book is a great reference book.

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[D443.Ebook] Download Ebook The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't, by Nate Silver

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"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

• Sales Rank: #23291 in Books
• Brand: Penguin Press HC, The
• Published on: 2012-09-27
• Released on: 2012-09-27
• Ingredients: Example Ingredients
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.56" h x 1.00" w x 6.38" l, 1.63 pounds
• Binding: Hardcover
• 544 pages

Features

• Great product!

Amazon.com Review
Amazon Best Books of the Month, September 2012: People love statistics. Statistics, however, do not always love them back. The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver's brilliant and elegant tour of the modern science-slash-art of forecasting, shows what happens when Big Data meets human nature. Baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, economics, and polling: In all of these areas, Silver finds predictions gone bad thanks to biases, vested interests, and overconfidence. But he also shows where sophisticated forecasters have gotten it right (and occasionally been ignored to boot). In today's metrics-saturated world, Silver's book is a timely and readable reminder that statistics are only as good as the people who wield them. --Darryl Campbell

From Bookforum
Silver doesn't offer one comprehensive theory for what makes a good prediction in his interdisciplinary tour of forecasting. But the book is a useful gloss on the tricky business of making predictions correctly. —Chris Wilson

Review
One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012

“Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise… Lively prose — from energetic to outraged… illustrates his dos and don’ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics… [the] chapter on global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses I’ve seen… even the noise makes for a good read.”
—New York Times

“Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”
—New York Times Book Review

"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism."
—New York Review of Books

"Mr. Silver's breezy style makes even the most difficult statistical material accessible. What is more, his arguments and examples are painstakingly researched..."
—Wall Street Journal

"Nate Silver is the Kurt Cobain of statistics... His ambitious new book, The Signal and the Noise, is a practical handbook and a philosophical manifesto in one, following the theme of prediction through a series of case studies ranging from hurricane tracking to professional poker to counterterrorism. It will be a supremely valuable resource for anyone who wants to make good guesses about the future, or who wants to assess the guesses made by others. In other words, everyone."
—The Boston Globe

"Silver delivers an improbably breezy read on what is essentially a primer on making predictions."
—Washington Post
 
“The Signal and the Noise is many things — an introduction to the Bayesian theory of probability, a meditation on luck and character, a commentary on poker's insights into life — but it's most important function is its most basic and absolutely necessary one right now: a guide to detecting and avoiding bullshit dressed up as data…What is most refreshing… is its humility. Sometimes we have to deal with not knowing, and we need somebody to tell us that.”
—Esquire

“[An] entertaining popularization of a subject that scares many people off… Silver’s journey from consulting to baseball analytics to professional poker to political prognosticating is very much that of a restless and curious mind. And this, more than number-crunching, is where real forecasting prowess comes from.”
—Slate

“Nate Silver serves as a sort of Zen master to American election-watchers… In the spirit of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s widely read “The Black Swan”, Mr. Silver asserts that humans are overconfident in their predictive abilities, that they struggle to think in probabilistic terms and build models that do not allow for uncertainty.”
—The Economist

"Silver explores our attempts at forecasting stocks, storms, sports, and anything else not set in stone."
—Wired

"The Signal and the Noise is essential reading in the era of Big Data that touches every business, every sports event, and every policymaker."
—Forbes.com

“Laser sharp. Surprisingly, statistics in Silver’s hands is not without some fun.”
—Smithsonian Magazine
 
“A substantial, wide-ranging, and potentially important gauntlet of probabilistic thinking based on actual data thrown at the feet of a culture determined to sweep away silly liberal notions like ‘facts.’”
—The Village Voice

“Silver shines a light on 600 years of human intelligence-gathering—from the advent of the printing press all the way through the Industrial Revolution and up to the current day—and he finds that it's been an inspiring climb. We've learned so much, and we still have so much left to learn.”
—MLB.com
 


“Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century (a century we thought we’d be a lot better at predicting than we actually are). Our political discourse is already better informed and more data-driven because of Nate’s influence. But here he shows us what he has always been able to see in the numbers—the heart and the ethical imperative of getting the quantitative questions right.  A wonderful read—totally engrossing.”
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
 
“Yogi Berra was right: ‘forecasting is hard, especially about the future.’ In this important book, Nate Silver explains why the performance of experts varies from prescient to useless and why we must plan for the unexpected. Must reading for anyone who cares about what might happen next.”
—Richard Thaler, co-author of Nudge 
 
“Making predictions in the era of ‘big data’ is not what you might imagine. Nate Silver's refreshing and original book provides unpredictably illuminating insights differentiating objective and subjective realities in forecasting our future. He reminds us that the human element is still essential in predicting advances in science, technology and even politics... if we were only wise enough to learn from our mistakes.”
—Governor Jon Huntsman 
 
“Here's a prediction: after you read The Signal and the Noise, you'll have much more insight into why some models work well—and also why many don't.  You'll learn to pay more attention to weather forecasts for the coming week—and none at all for weather forecasts beyond that.  Nate Silver takes a complex, difficult subject and makes it fun, interesting, and relevant.”
—Peter Orszag, former director of the Office of Management and Budget
 
“Projection, prediction, assumption, trepidation, anticipation, expectation, estimation… we wouldn’t have 80 words like this in the English language if it wasn’t central to our lives. We tend not to take prediction seriously because, on some level, we know that we don’t know. Silver shows us how this inevitable part of life goes awry when projected on a grand scale into the murky worlds of politics, science and economics. Dancing through chess, sports, snowstorms, global warming and the McLaughlin Group, he makes a serious and systematic effort to show us how to clean the noise off the signal.”
—Bill James, author of The Bill James Baseball Abstracts
 

Most helpful customer reviews

752 of 785 people found the following review helpful.
Much-needed insight to understand and improve predictive science
By Sitting in Seattle
This is the best general-readership book on applied statistics that I've read. Short review: if you're interested in science, economics, or prediction: read it. It's full of interesting cases, builds intuition, and is a readable example of Bayesian thinking.

Longer review: I'm an applied business researcher and that means my job is to deliver quality forecasts: to make them, persuade people of them, and live by the results they bring. Silver's new book offers a wealth of insight for many different audiences. It will help you to develop intuition for the kinds of predictions that are possible, that are not so possible, where they may go wrong, and how to avoid some common pitfalls.

The core concept is this: prediction is a vital part of science, of business, of politics, of pretty much everything we do. But we're not very good at it, and fall prey to cognitive biases and other systemic problems such as information overload that make things worse. However, we are simultaneously learning more about how such things occur and that knowledge can be used to make predictions better -- and to improve our models in science, politics, business, medicine, and so many other areas.

The book presents real-world experience and critical reflection on what happens to research in social contexts. Data-driven models with inadequate theory can lead to terrible inferences. For example, on p. 162: "What happens in systems with noisy data and underdeveloped theory - like earthquake prediction and parts of economic and political science - is a two-step process. First, people start to mistake the noise for a signal. Second, this noise pollutes journals, blogs, and news accounts with false alarms, undermining good science and setting back our ability to understand how the system really works." This is the kind of insight that every good practitioner acquires through hard-won battles, and continues to wrestle every day both in doing work and in communicating it to others.

It is both readable and technically accurate: it presents just enough model details yet avoids being formula-heavy. Statisticians will be able to reproduce models similar to the ones he discusses, but general readers will not be left out: the material is clear and applicable. Scholars of all stripes will appreciate the copious notes and citations, 56 pages of notes and another 20 pages of index, which detail the many sources. It is also important to note that this is perhaps the best general readership book from a Bayesian perspective -- a viewpoint that is overdue for readable exposition.

The models cover a diversity of areas from baseball to politics, from earthquakes to finance, from climate science to chess. Of course this makes the book fascinating to generalists, geeks, and breadth thinkers, but perhaps more importantly, I think it serves well to develop reusable intuition across domains. And, for those of us who practice such things professionally, to bring stories and examples that we can tell and use to illustrate concepts with the people we inform.

There are three audiences who might not appreciate the book as much. First are students looking for a how-to book. Silver provides a lot of pointers and examples, but does not get into nuts and bolts details or supply foundational technical instruction. That requires coursework in research methods and and statistics. Second, his approach to doing multiple models and interpreting them humbly will not satisfy those who promote a naive, gee-whiz, "look how great these new methods are" approach to research. But then, that's not a problem; it's a good thing. The third non-fitting audience will be experts who desire depth in one of the book's many topic areas; it's not a technical treatise for them and I can confidently predict grumbling in some quarters. Overall, those three audiences are small, which happily leaves the rest of us to enjoy the book.

What would make it better? As a pro, I'd like a little more depth (of course). It emphasizes games a little too much for my taste. And a clearer prescriptive framework could be nice (but also could be a problem for reasons he illustrates). But those are minor points; it hits its target better than any other such book I know.

Conclusion: if you're interested in scientific or statistical forecasting, either as a professional or layperson, or if you simply enjoy general science books, get it. Cheers!

296 of 310 people found the following review helpful.
Great book, and here are some takeaways
By Kindle Customer
Excellent book!!! People looking for a "how to predict" silver bullet will (like some reviewers here) be disappointed, mainly because Silver is too honest to pretend that such a thing exists. The anecdotes and exposition are fantastic, and I wish we could make this book required reading for, say, everyone in the country.

During election season, everyone with a newspaper column or TV show feels entitled to make (transparently partisan) predictions about the consequences of each candidate's election to unemployment/crime/abortion/etc. This kind of pundit chatter, as Silver notes, tends to be insanely inaccurate. But there are also some amazing success stories in the prediction business. I list some chapter-by-chapter takeaways below (though there's obviously a lot depth more to the book than I can fit into a list like this):

1. People have puzzled over prediction and uncertainty for centuries.

2. TV pundits make terrible predictions, no better than random guesses. They are rewarded for being entertaining, and not really penalized for being wrong.

3. Statistics has revolutionized baseball. But computer geeks have not replaced talent scouts altogether. They're working together in more interesting ways now.

4. Weather prediction has gotten lots better over the last fifty years, due to highly sophisticated, large-scale supercomputer modeling.

5. We have almost no ability to predict earthquakes. But we know that some regions are more earthquake prone, and that in a given region an earthquake of magnitude n happens about ten times as often as an earthquake of magnitude (n+1).

6. Economists are terrible at predicting quantities such as next year's GDP. Predictions are only very slightly correlated with reality. They also tend to be overconfident, drastically underestimating the margin of error in their guesses. Politically motivated predictions (such as those released by White House, historically) are even worse.

7. The spread of a disease like the flu is hard to predict. Sometimes we overreact because risk of under-reacting seems greater.

8. A few professional sports gamblers are able to make make a living by spotting meaningful patterns before others do, and being right slightly more than half the time.

9. Kasparov thought he could beat Deep Blue. Couldn't. Interesting tale of humans/computers trying to outguess each other.

10. Nate Silver made a living playing online poker for a few years. When the government tightened the rules, the less savvy players ("fish") stopped playing, and he found he couldn't make money any more. So he started FiveThirtyEight.

11. Efficient market hypothesis: market seems very efficient, but not perfectly so. Possible source of error: most investment is done by institutions, and individuals at these institutions are rewarded based on short term profits. Rational employees may have less career risk when they "bet with the consensus" than when they buck a trend: this may increase herding effects and makes bubbles worse. Note: Nate pointedly does not claim that one can make money on Intrade by betting based on FiveThirtyEight probabilities. But he stresses that Intrade prices are themselves probably heavily informed by poll-based models like the ones on FiveThirtyEight.

12. Climate prediction: prima facie case for anthropic warming is very strong (greenhouse gas up, temperature up, good theoretical reason for former causing latter). But lots of good reason to doubt accuracy of specific elaborate computer models, and most scientists admit uncertainty about details.

13. We failed to predict both Pearl Harbor and September 11. Unknown unknowns got us. Got to watch out for loose Pakistani nukes and other potential catastrophic surprises in the future.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
I liked this book, but, then again, I am a geek.
By RonnieT
Nate Silver is best known for using polling data to call political elections. He missed on the Trump win, but was pretty good up until then.

The Signal and the Noise is a well written, well researched and well reasoned book about forecasting and the various mistakes that prognosticators make. He addresses failures as the inability of economists and others to foresee the bursting of the housing bubble and the chaos it created in 2008. Other themes include easier-to-predict subjects such as future performance of major league baseball players and the success (or not) of poker players. In these later two, he has real world experience as he developed software to predict baseball player performance and made a living as a professional poker player.

Other forecasting areas that he writes about include weather (a modern success); earthquakes (not so much due to difficulties in differentiating the signal from the noise); the spread of infectious diseases (difficult to model due to human behaviour); and climate change (right on warming but uncertain about effects).

One of the over all themes involves the Bayes Theorem. This requires an a priori hunch about the chances of an event that is refined by future observations and experimenting.

There were sections I like more than others, but this may correlate more with my affinity for the subjects rather than Silver's reporting. I particularly like the section on Climate Change research. It was thoughtful and open-minded. As he does throughout the book, he looks at the facts and the stats and interviews the people involved in the research.

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[I577.Ebook] Download PDF Mocktail Recipes. Mocktails - Non Alcoholic Cocktail Drinks, by Roxy's Recipes

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Mocktail Recipes. Mocktails - Non Alcoholic Drinks

These are the drinks that you will learn how to make:

Lemon Verbena Soda
Caribbean Sunset Mocktail
The Placebo Mocktail
Alcohol-Free Cosmo
Lavender Lemonade Mocktail
Fantastic Holiday Mocktail
Non-Alcoholic Peach Cooler
Mandarin Mojito Mocktail
Virgin Bloody Mary with Shrimp
Strawberry Basil Soda
Lemonade Mojito Mocktail
Virgin Mojitos
Non-Alcohol Tropical Mango Colada
Virgin Raspberry Lime Rickey
Pink Pepper & Kumquat Spritzer
Non-Alcoholic Apple Julep
Mock Champagne
No-Alcohol Long Island Iced Tea
Tornado Twist Mocktail
Coca Cola Spice
The Arnold Palmer Mocktail
Virgin Peach Colada
Shirley Temple Made from 7-Up
Alcohol-Free Cranberry Cooler
Cream Soda
Non-Alcoholic Mint Julep
Virgin Strawberry Daiquiri
Lime Cola
Exotic Non-Alcoholic Fruit Drink
Virgin Grapefruit Mojito
Frozen Mango Mocktails
Virgin Hibiscus Cosmo
Orange-Vanilla Punch
Ginger & Cantaloupe Spritzer
Pomegranate & Bellini Mocktail
Chocolate Mocktails
Non-Alcoholic Sangria
Sparkling Rosemary Limeade
Asian Pear Sparkler
Elderberry Shrub
Maple and Grapefruit Mocktail
Hibiscus Mimosa Mocktail

• Sales Rank: #626610 in eBooks
• Published on: 2013-08-26
• Released on: 2013-08-26
• Format: Kindle eBook

Most helpful customer reviews

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Easy recipes and delicous drinks
By Michael
This recipe book has perfect drink ideas for non drinkers. I tried the Caribbean Sunset Mocktail and the Virgin Peach Colada which were both tasty and easy to make. I can't wait to try all of the recipes in this amazing book!

0 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Kindle version had adverts in
By K. wright
it was OK. I was look for inspiration for a sweet 16 party. it was full of a lot of ingredients that were going to end up coting a lot, just for a small amount. Next time will search the web a little more

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